How high is the ceiling of the hottest paper indus

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How high is the ceiling of China's paper industry?

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core tip: with the awakening of China's economic giant, the paper industry has also developed by leaps and bounds, and the total output and use of paper have gradually ranked higher in the world, and finally ranked first in the world like most consumer goods in China

[China Packaging News] with the awakening of China's economic giant, the paper industry has also developed by leaps and bounds, and the total output and consumption of paper have gradually ranked top in the world, and finally ranked first in the world like most consumer goods in China

while we are still looking forward to the goal of annual per capita consumption of 100 kilograms of paper in developed countries, we are facing the oncoming Internet and mobile Internet, which have brought new life and consumption patterns, so the paper industry has inevitably encountered the ceiling of further development

open the paper magazine, attend the summit forum and visit various paper enterprises. What you see and hear most is transformation, output saturation and negative growth, which means continuous innovation in the industry. However, there are not many good suggestions that can really put forward solutions, and you can see the problems, but how to solve them really needs serious thinking

the paper industry used to be a light industry, which is not light at all. There may not be many industries with mechanical equipment larger than a single integral paper machine. Of course, we say that it is not light, not only in terms of equipment weight, but also in terms of its production mode

to clarify this problem, we need to start with the characteristics of the papermaking industry. All people who have studied papermaking understand that when they first enter the University and talk about professional classes, they are told that papermaking has several characteristics: strong dependence on raw materials; Large investment and long capital recovery period; Heavy assets and high requirements for personnel quality. To be honest, at that time, the understanding and high attention to these characteristics were not deep in technology research and development

judging from these characteristics of the paper industry, it is precisely the problem faced by the development of paper industry today. It should be a heavy asset industry. In terms of an enterprise or an investment, plants, equipment, raw materials, etc., which we are familiar with at ordinary times, often need to occupy a large amount of funds, and it belongs to heavy assets

once such enterprises reach the capacity limit and the market demand is still growing, if they want to obtain higher profits, they must invest in new production capacity, which requires a lot of money. Heshi Jinan new era Gold Testing Instrument Co., Ltd. produces all kinds of experimental machines all year round. If the investment and production is too slow, they may lose profit opportunities. At that time, the market demand may have changed long ago, and once the demand turns, the profit growth of heavy asset companies is weak, and the provision of these new equipment and plants causes a lot of depreciation, which reduces the profit. It can be said that investors in paper-making enterprises will have a bit of a taste of riding a tiger, especially in today's rapidly changing market

many people attribute the difficulties faced by the development of today's manufacturing industry (including papermaking) to the national 4trillion investment in 2008, which is at least somewhat far fetched for the papermaking industry. Of course, it was relatively easy for enterprises to borrow from banks at that time, but most of the 4trillion was invested in the construction of some infrastructure. Therefore, Today, whether the overcapacity of some kinds of paper in the paper industry is due to the contradiction caused by the change of consumption behavior under the impact of the Internet economy and the traditional manufacturing industry's failure to adjust in time to adapt to this change

for example, in the past, Beijing subway station was full of stalls to buy newspapers and magazines, and passengers in the subway either read newspapers or magazines. Today, this phenomenon has disappeared. Instead, people have a smart hand. What people see is, they watch Weibo and they see serials

people used to subscribe to newspapers and buy magazines out of their demand and desire for information. Today, the emergence of Internet, especially mobile Internet, has broken this information asymmetry, and the speed of Internet appearing in the public is much faster than that of paper media

of course, the paper industry will not disappear completely or remain stagnant, but the paper industry needs to adapt to the changes brought about by this interconnection and the changes in people's consumption habits as soon as possible. At the same time, the economic development and the improvement of people's living standards will make some new paper varieties emerge continuously, or the paper varieties that were not cultivated in the market in the past will also reappear and show infinite vitality

here are a few examples:

1 High vacuum and low temperature insulation paper may not be a new kind of paper. In recent years, due to the increasing demand for new energy, the use of LNG (liquefied natural gas) has greatly increased, which also promotes the rapid development of this kind of paper

2. The automobile industry has developed rapidly in recent years. Cars that were inaccessible to ordinary people in the past have become a means of transportation for ordinary people. The continuous development of the economy has led to the continuous rise in the consumption of automobile filter paper

3. With the improvement of people's living standards and the massive use of LCD TVs and touch screens, the consumption of LED diaphragm paper has increased significantly, and there will be higher requirements for the quality of diaphragm paper

of course, the development of paper and paper varieties will have its own characteristics in the future, that is, the types will continue to increase, and the consumption will not be as large as that of cultural paper

in addition, the cultivation of the paper market has a great relationship with the income of ordinary people. For example, LWC paper, when the price of a magazine can be sold for 10 yuan, such as the past "popular film" and "south wind window", its consumption will increase. If the price of each book like "reader" is 4 yuan, it may also use offset paper

let's make a simple judgment on some possible trends of papermaking in the future:

1 we often say that cash is the king, and the development of papermaking in the future should also be the king of raw materials. Those enterprises with sustainable sources of raw materials will have an advantage in the market competition

2 there are also large differences between different companies that are greatly impacted by the Internet, such as cultural paper, especially paper will be greatly affected

3 it can be predicted, The opportunity to produce hundreds of thousands of tons of large-scale paper is greatly reduced, and replaced by flexible small and medium-sized paper machines (such as andrez's m paper machine). Of course, these small and medium-sized paper machines also have advanced control level

4. New varieties of paper will be greatly increased, but the output will not be large. What paper enterprises produce should be based on market demand, because in the past, according to market forecasts, Today, the enterprise driven production that uses inventory to occupy the market has been replaced by the market-oriented pull production. The products are constantly refined, and the trend of accurate positioning of customers is

5 all paper types related to people's living standards and the emerging business and consumption patterns in the future will have a better development (such as packaging paper and household paper), but the competition will be very fierce

6 for enterprises themselves, it is required to constantly practice their internal skills, Do a good job in the kind of paper you are good at, instead of looking at the market today to produce this product, and tomorrow to produce that product. This is somewhat like the queuing principle in mathematics. Others will also like the paper you are optimistic about. Everyone is looking for products with large profit space

7 some new interconnected production and marketing models will continue to appear in the paper industry

in addition, it should be mentioned that when we do the per capita consumption statistics of paper, we always divide the total output by our total population. It seems a little unscientific to think about it carefully

the imbalance of regional social and economic development, especially compared with developed countries, people's living standards and cultural consumption needs are very different, that is, our development is far behind, and at the same time, we face the impact of interconnection. Therefore, the space for the development of papermaking is not as large as inferred from the data

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