The recovery of the hottest demand restricts the d

2022-07-30
  • Detail

The demand rebound restricts the steel price to decline, but the deviation will not be too great.

as November approaches, the north will enter a period of seasonal shutdown and spot transaction stagnation. After the game between production restriction and demand, the steel price has found a short-term equilibrium position. Especially in the absence of obvious variable factors in the near future, it may need to wait for the steel price to return to a smooth rising market. The first line of 3500 yuan/ton will be the center of the recent price shock of the main contract of rebar, and the downward deviation will not be too large

gold nine silver ten, steel inventory decreased, demand was acceptable. In September, the growth rate of real estate investment continued to rise to 9.20%, and the sales data of commercial housing continued to deteriorate. The year-on-year growth rate in September was -1.5%, down 5.76 percentage points month on month. Although in this round of real estate regulation and control, the rhythm from sales to investment is different from that in the past, considering that the source of investment in the real estate industry mainly depends on early-stage sales, it is uncertain whether the early-stage investment growth can be continued in the later stage. On the whole, the short-term demand growth lacks the power to improve rapidly, but the space for decline is not too large. Moving the aperture to the center of vision) in addition, the monthly growth rate of automobile production and infrastructure investment was basically stable, which also showed the strong recovery power of the economy itself. From the perspective of different downstream steel sectors, monthly data show that the bottom of demand growth has been proved, but it will take time for endogenous acceleration. Recently, it will take a long time for the quality of steel to lose. Many people say that the price correction also shows that after the focus of the market shifts from supply to demand, the demand side can not become the main driving force to guide the continuous rise of steel prices, but can play a role in limiting the decline of steel prices; We can't even ignore the same boosting effect of demand recovery on the supply side during the current round of steel price rise. If we look at the long cycle, the importance of demand recovery to the market will gradually replace the impact of supply side contraction

in terms of supply, the supply contraction policy has been well implemented. Excluding the impact of the irregular production restriction policy in some regions on the steel market, the signs that the daily average output of steel mills has been restricted are very obvious under the stimulation of continuous high gross profit, which shows that the rigidity and main tone of the policy have not changed. The latest data in September showed that the daily average output of crude steel was 2394300 tons, down 0.49 percentage points from August, The gross profit of industrial deformed steel bar is at the high level of 800 yuan/ton -900 yuan/ton, which is slightly lower than that of 850 yuan/ton -950 yuan/ton last month by 50 yuan/ton -100 yuan/ton, with little change. Since April this year, after the gross profit per ton of rebar exceeded the 500 yuan/ton mark, the average daily crude steel output of member steel enterprises has been fluctuating in the range of 180 tons to 185 tons. Even though the profit in the third quarter continued to rise to 1000 yuan per ton, the increase in output was limited. Reviewing the historical data of the elasticity of profits, the average daily crude steel production capacity of member enterprises exceeded 1.7 million tons in late March this year, This is consistent with the time node of sharp rise in gross profit per ton of steel, and it is also the highest level in history since the rebar futures were listed in 2010. After measuring the profit margin and inventory level, it can be found that the historical high profit and historical low inventory level have coexisted since 2010, which indicates that even though the industry supply has increased slightly, the relative demand growth rate is small. The basic list of universal wood-based panel testing machines for supply and demand: the pattern of rotating wear testing machines has changed qualitatively. Tracking the ten day high-frequency data in September and October, the total rebar inventory fell for two consecutive weeks after the National Day holiday, which has a very strong negative correlation with the purchase volume of Shanghai thread terminal

raw materials fell by a large margin. The coking plant increased production more than the steel plant. The iron ore shipment volume and port inventory fluctuated in line. Under such a high profit level, the steel price became less dependent on upstream costs. After a short-term shock, the steel price should not be too bearish

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI