The hottest photovoltaic power generation market i

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The photovoltaic power generation market in the Asia Pacific region is developing rapidly

in May 2012, the European Photovoltaic Industry Association released the "2016 global photovoltaic market outlook", which made a very optimistic forecast for the prospects of the global photovoltaic market in the next few years. The report analyzes the development trend of major photovoltaic market countries in detail, and clearly points out that the photovoltaic power generation market in the Asia Pacific region, especially China, is facing new opportunities for rapid growth

globally, the European market has dominated the global photovoltaic market for many years, but the growth potential of other countries and regions cannot be underestimated. Driven by energy demand, the countries and regions with the fastest growth rate of photovoltaic market in the future are China, India, Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and North America. Those countries and regions that are rich in light resources and whose photovoltaic power generation cost is equivalent to the peak power generation price of diesel generators can reach 60GW ~ 250gw of new installed capacity in 2020 and 260gw ~ 1100gw in 2030. With the further decline in the price of photovoltaic products, more and more countries will use affordable photovoltaic power generation within 10 years

Italy: there is great uncertainty in the market

from the perspective of regulation, the Italian photovoltaic market in 2011 was slightly complex. Although the Italian "Energy Act III" was just implemented at the beginning of the year, the accuracy level of the experimental machine was soon replaced by "Energy Act IV" in June 2011, and "Energy Act IV" made clear provisions on the current electricity price up to 2016. In its "National Renewable Energy Action Plan" (nreap) submitted to the European Union at the end of 2010, Italy predicted that its new photovoltaic installed capacity would reach 5.5gw in 2015 and 8GW in 2020

in 2011, 9.3gw of photovoltaic system in Italy was connected to electricity, and 3.5gW was installed at the end of 2010, but it was connected to electricity in 2011, so it cannot enjoy the upper tariff in the Energy Act II. Among them, 1.5gw enjoys the policy of the Energy Act III, and the remaining 2gw enjoys the policy of the energy act IV. At the time of publication of this report, the fourth Energy Act was still controversial, that is, whether the annual photovoltaic subsidy should be limited to 6 billion euros to 7 billion euros. By the end of 2011, according to the current installed capacity, the amount of photovoltaic subsidies in Italy had reached 5.5 billion euros. The fifth energy act is under discussion and formulation, and it is likely to cause the photovoltaic market to blowout before the formal implementation of the act in the second half of 2012, making the newly incorporated photovoltaic installed capacity reach 6Gw in 2012. There is great uncertainty in the Italian market in 2013, which depends on whether the market control mechanism setting the installation ceiling works

Germany: the market will grow significantly this year

in 2011, the new installed capacity in Germany reached 7.5GW, setting a new record again. As the price of photovoltaic system fell rapidly in 2011, and the fit (electricity price subsidy) adjustment originally expected to be carried out in July may be cancelled, which led to the strong installed capacity in the fourth quarter. Let's learn about the basic installation and commissioning: growth, the installed capacity reached 3gw in December alone

although it is not clear whether the 3gw is really installed and merged (due to the concept of "commercial production", it allows the system to be registered before it is actually connected to electricity), this once again shows the strong vitality of the market for the future fit reduction, and emphasizes the tight demand and dynamic market control mechanism. In 2012, as the government announced that fit would be significantly reduced in April 2012, 1.9gw of photovoltaic systems were installed in the leading quarter alone. Although the government's intention has limited the excessive growth of photovoltaic installed capacity, it is expected that the market will still grow significantly in 2012

however, in Germany, the new fit in several market segments is now lower than the retail electricity price. If the industry can maintain a low profit margin as it is now, this low price may be conducive to self consumption

the effect of the new mechanism of adjusting fits on a monthly basis is still unproven, but considering the downward trend of prices, photovoltaic subsidy rates should be adjusted regularly in principle, which can avoid the explosive effect like that in 2011 in the future

United States: in 2016, the market exceeded 10GW

the United States installed a record nearly 1.9gw of photovoltaic power generation systems in 2011. Most of them are concentrated in the last quarter of 2011, with nearly 800MW. In terms of policy support, the 1603 act has expired since 2012, making it more difficult to finance new photovoltaic power generation projects. This explains, to some extent, the rush to load in the last three months of 2011. In 2011, 80% of the market was concentrated in seven states: California (30%), New Jersey, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Pennsylvania and New York

the photovoltaic applications in the residential, commercial and utility markets in the United States are relatively average. The housing market accounts for about 15% of the new installed capacity, and its development is increasingly driven by third-party owners rather than households themselves. Commercial systems have grown very rapidly, reaching a market share of nearly 45% in 2011. It is mainly developed in California and New Jersey, and is expected to play an increasingly important role in Massachusetts, Maryland, North Carolina, Arizona and other states in the next few years. In 2011, the public utility system project promoted the substantial growth of the market, accounting for 40% of the newly installed capacity. Power purchase agreements (PPAs) are the key to promote the development of this market segment. There are also many reserve projects: in the next five years, 9gw of projects that have signed power purchase agreements will be installed (of which 3gw has been financed and has started construction)

the US market experienced rapid growth in the second quarter of 2012. In addition, many public utility projects will install a large number of photovoltaic equipment, even if they are not within the scope of policy support. The US market is likely to reach at least 3gw in 2012 and more than 10GW in 2016

France: the growth of rooftop photovoltaic systems is large

last year, France had more than 1.6gw of new systems, which were mainly installed in 2010, and less than 10% of the equipment was installed in 2011

the new policy implemented since March 2011 aims to limit the annual installed capacity to 500MW. The fit of photovoltaic system below 100kW is high, which can realize income, while the fit of photovoltaic system below 100kW is very low (slightly higher than 0.10 euro/kWh). Larger projects must be through bidding. In 2011, developers have to wait until the summer to bid. These complex bidding results will not be informed until 2012, and the system installation will take longer. This means that most of the projects were acquired at the end of 2010 and installed in 2011 or 2012, and will not be connected to electricity until 2012

in this important election year, the issue of the national energy structure has been debated many times in France. However, in any case, energy related concepts are unlikely to lead to fundamental changes in the development mode of res (renewable energy system). For most politicians, nuclear power is still the preferred low-carbon technology

at present, the hope of photovoltaic development mainly comes from projects with development potential within the framework of the power purchase agreement, in which third-party developers own and operate photovoltaic power generation systems outside the fit framework. Another source of growth is the self used rooftop photovoltaic system

Japan: the development potential is about 230gw

Japan began to develop PV before PV became the mainstream technology. Over the years, the Japanese market has grown rapidly, with 990mw installed in 2010. The Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011 made Japan reconsider its energy strategy. In 2011, Japan's new installed capacity reached 1.3gw, which is expected to continue to grow in the future. The official goal is to achieve a cumulative PV installed capacity of 28gw by 2020, and the real market development may be higher than this value. The Japanese government plans that by 2030, 40% of the country's electricity demand will come from renewable energy, of which solar photovoltaic power generation will take the lead, with at least 53gw. It is estimated that the real development potential of Japan's photovoltaic market is about 230gw due to its low experimental speed

in 2010, residential photovoltaic systems accounted for about 95% of Japan's photovoltaic market, but 2011 began to change, with residential photovoltaic systems accounting for about 80% and commercial and industrial roofs accounting for more than 16%. Terrestrial photovoltaic systems are also expected to grow, even in this land for money country. Driven by local utilities or private investors, it is expected that there will be large-scale projects with an installed capacity of more than 12MW in 2012. According to the fit policy to be implemented in July 2012, residential systems above 10kW and commercial/industrial systems above 500kW will receive corresponding subsidies

due to the destruction of many power plants, the lack of electricity will promote the development of photovoltaic in the coming months or years. The rising power demand in summer is also conducive to photovoltaic power generation becoming the preferred energy source. The Japanese market will easily exceed the 2gw mark in 2012. By 2016, the maximum displacement of the slowly increasing specimen at the loading point is only 0.1mm long to about 3gw ~ 3.5gW

UK: the installed capacity increased to 22gw in 2020

in 2011, the UK photovoltaic market showed explosive growth. In January, 2011, the British government announced that it would revise the electricity price to help complete the installation of large-scale photovoltaic power stations in the leading quarter and the second quarter of 2011. However, the revision of the previous policy was faster than expected, which accelerated the development of the UK photovoltaic market. Hundreds of megawatts of household photovoltaic systems were installed and connected to electricity before the deadline of December 12, 2011. Although the new tariff subsidy applicable to small systems has been reduced by 50% compared with the previous one, it still plays a role and may promote the rapid development of the photovoltaic market this year. In June, 2012, the British government will further cut the electricity price

the UK Climate Change Minister publicly announced that the UK government will increase the installed capacity target in 2020 to 22gw (the current plan is 2.7gw). Although this is only a political slogan, it reflects that the UK government has paid more attention to the development of the photovoltaic market, indicating the huge development potential of the UK photovoltaic market

India: the new installed capacity will reach 5GW in 2016

the national solar energy plan (jjnsm) of India (Jawaharlal Nehru) was launched in January 2010. Its purpose is to achieve the government's goal of achieving a national solar power generation capacity of 22gw (and 20GW, away from 2gw) by 2022. At present, the plan has been launched and special attention has been paid to the project within its framework. The main reason why the government proposed this task is that its previous domestic policies on solar power generation were actually a combination of various local policies, resulting in the division of the current domestic market. In 2011, India's new installed capacity was about 300MW, and the total installed capacity reached 520mw, but it is still very small compared with the whole country. The Indian domestic market is composed of projects supported by different policies. Jjnsm plans to realize the combined application of 1GW ~ 2gw by 2013, reach the second stage goal of 4gw ~ 10GW by 2017, and finally reach 20GW by 2022

at the same time, India's national solar energy plan stipulates that it is expected to achieve about 200MW by 2013, 1GW in 2017 and 2gw in total by 2022. This emerging market will grow faster than expected. It is expected that India's new installed capacity will reach 1GW in 2012 and 5GW in 2016. Zhonghua glass () Department

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