Photovoltaic parity may come in advance, and non photovoltaic costs will control the process.
Abstract: "with the rapid decline of power generation costs in the photovoltaic industry, in the next five years, we may see that photovoltaic power generation in most parts of the world will move towards parity, and the energy prices of photovoltaic and solar energy will also decline significantly."
at the 11th SNEC Photovoltaic Exhibition, the world's largest photovoltaic exhibition, which opened yesterday, and the "global photovoltaic Leadership Forum" held during it, parity became the focus of attention of all parties. Most people believed that this time point would come faster than expected, and "non photovoltaic cost" became a key factor in the process
around 2020 or achieve parity
"China's 13th five year plan has set a very clear goal. By 2020, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power will reach 105gw, which I estimate will be greatly exceeded. At the same time, the price level of photovoltaic power generation will be reduced by another 50% on the basis of 2015. We estimate that the parity on the power side can be achieved in 2020, and the conversion efficiency of advanced crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells will reach more than 23% Said Yang Liyou, general manager of Jinneng technology
Qu Xiaohua, chairman of atlas solar power, agrees that solar energy can definitely achieve parity, but he has a different judgment on this time point: "in the future 2018, our solar energy and wind energy will be at the same cost. In addition, by 2022, solar energy will achieve the same cost as traditional fossil fuels. To sum up briefly, I call it the same price for scenery in 2018 and the same price for fire in 2022."
"4.4 experimental results with the rapid decline of power generation costs in the photovoltaic industry, in the next five years, we may see that photovoltaic power generation in most parts of the world will move towards parity, and the energy prices of photovoltaic and solar energy will also decline significantly." Gaojifan, chairman of Trinasolar, said
from the above expectations, PV parity can be achieved around 2020. Three years ago, most of the industry also predicted that this time point would not come until about 2025
in the opinion of zouchenghui, chairman of Aikang group, the more important point is how to realize photovoltaic power parity. He believes that the current situation of excess power in the domestic market still exists, and the challenges faced by the photovoltaic industry are more from traditional thermal power enterprises. More consideration should be given to how to compete with thermal power enterprises and how to absorb photovoltaic clean power. At present, there are still big problems in the consumption of power stations in the whole western region. We should devote ourselves to the development of end-user new energy vehicles, energy storage power stations, western big data centers, etc., and use electricity
"in the future, the whole electricity price will be lower and lower, and the development of our whole industry will be healthier and healthier. It is unsustainable for any industry to rely on long-term subsidies. Only when the electricity price is reduced and ordinary citizens can benefit, can we achieve real development." Zouchenghui said
"non photovoltaic cost" pain
however, some insiders have warned that there may be variables in the process of achieving parity
sunxingping, President of GCL new energy, believes that the progress of China's photovoltaic power parity does not match the status of a photovoltaic power, mainly because "non photovoltaic costs" such as land, finance and taxation are affecting the progress of photovoltaic parity
"in terms of parity, the photovoltaic industry can have more room for development, but the bottleneck in parity is not what it originally thought, that is, the normal start or end of the experiment depends only on technological progress and the cost reduction of upstream manufacturing." Sun Xingping said that after nearly two years of efforts, China's photovoltaic industry has made great progress in technological progress and the cost reduction of upstream manufacturing. From silicon materials to battery modules to power station construction, an integrated whole industry chain with international competitiveness has been formed. However, in sharp contrast, China's photovoltaic power price is higher than the international average
he gave a set of figures: the photovoltaic power price in Abu Dhabi has been reduced to about 0.2 yuan/kWh, and that in the United States has also been reduced to about 0 yuan, whether it is made of metal or non-metal materials 4 yuan/degree. "Behind this low price, the land, finance, taxation and other non photovoltaic costs of photovoltaic power generation in these countries are significantly lower than those in China. GCL new energy has calculated that we can achieve lower power generation costs under the same non photovoltaic costs. We believe that at present, non photovoltaic factors are affecting the parity process." Sun Xingping said
the first of these factors is land. Due to the existing policies, all photovoltaic power generation projects involving agricultural land should be managed according to construction land, which has a great impact on the development of photovoltaic industry in China, especially in the central and eastern regions. The development of the industry is calling for policy adjustment
"non photovoltaic factors also include the support of bank loans and tax policies." Sun Xingping gave another set of figures for comparison: the loan interest rate of Abu Dhabi photovoltaic power station fell to 1.5 points, and the factory capacity was ready for this, while the loan interest rate of domestic photovoltaic power station rose from time to time, still as high as 4.9 or even 5.3 points. In addition, compared with the international concept of tax investors, that is, the tax exemption of social investment, domestic support for social tax policies is still insufficient
in his view, accelerating photovoltaic parity requires lifting the restrictions of non photovoltaic factors and forming a friendly environment conducive to the development of the photovoltaic industry. The vigorous development of photovoltaic power generation as a green energy has become the consensus of all sectors of society in recent years, and the realization of parity requires the efforts of the whole photovoltaic industry and the formation of a joint force with policy innovation
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